AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
We start the program today on the subject of peace. In a few moments, we'll hear from this year's Nobel Peace Prize winner.
But first, the Israeli military says the 48 hostages still held by Hamas and Gaza will be freed tomorrow. Of that 48, around 20 are believed to remain alive. That's in exchange for the release of 2,000 of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel and, according to The New York Times, the bodies of 360 more. It's all part of the ceasefire deal that came into effect late last week. Aaron David Miller is with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He's a Veteran peace negotiator across multiple American administrations, and he joins us now. Good morning.
AARON DAVID MILLER: Good morning, Ayesha.
RASCOE: I mentioned the Peace Prize at the top. In 1994, Yasser Arafat, Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres shared the prize for the Oslo Accords, which aimed to reconcile Israelis and Palestinians and give Palestinians self-rule in parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Where does this moment stand in comparison to that one?
MILLER: Look, I usually default to the negative when it comes to Israeli-Palestinian anything. Participating in these negotiations for the better part of 20-plus years, mostly, we failed. This is not a peace agreement. It is not even an exorable end to the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza. It offers - assuming the presidential leadership that Trump has demonstrated continues, it offers the first break in two years of a parade of horrors that Israelis and Palestinians have visited upon one another. And it could - it actually could lead to an end to the war in Gaza.
RASCOE: What do you think are the biggest challenges? Assuming the releases and returns go as planned, with the next steps in this process, what do you think will be the biggest challenges?
MILLER: Yeah, the biggest challenge, Ayesha - the reason in two years these agreements - there have been two of them, one in November 2023, one in January 2025 - never got through the first phase is because there's a fundamental impasse between Hamas on one hand and the government of Benjamin Netanyahu on the other. Hamas wants to survive as a political organization, with its weapons and its tunnel infrastructure intact, to try to take over the Palestinian national movement and increase its influence in the West Bank. The Netanyahu government, on the other hand, wants to see Hamas eradicated as a military organization with no political influence in Gaza. That impasse remains the single greatest challenge here.
The first phase will resolve of the three reasons Gaza has become urgent. The first phase resolves the issue of hostages. That should lead to a radical diminution in Israeli military activity. There's no justification any longer for comprehensive military offensive actions. And once that environment stabilizes, the U.N. is already up to 400 trucks a day, which is - what? - 200 short of what Gaza was getting on October 6. The problem is how to move to demilitarizing of Hamas' weapons and tunnel infrastructure, how to create a governing structure which has a legitimate and authoritive (ph) Palestinians involved.
RASCOE: Not to cut you off, but can I ask you, then, do you see prospects for a two-state solution now?
MILLER: No. I think that remains an idea as valid as I think it can be, and I think it's the only solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That idea right now is tethered to a galaxy far, far away rather than the realities back here on planet Earth. But you've got to end the war in Gaza first and begin to create an alternative pathway for Israelis and Palestinians with presidential leadership.
And I come back to this point - Donald Trump is presiding over the undermining of the norms and institutions of a constitutional order he's designed to protect. But let me be very clear here. None of this would be happening - none of it - without Trump's capacity to pressure and focus primarily on Benjamin Netanyahu. Whether he's able to maintain that is unclear.
RASCOE: That's Aaron David Miller. Thank you so much for speaking with us.
MILLER: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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