A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
President Trump's pressure campaign against Venezuela involving warships and thousands of U.S. troops in the Caribbean Sea is up against an authoritarian leader who has proven to be a wily survivor. Here's John Otis reporting.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
DIOSDADO CABELLO: (Speaking Spanish).
UNIDENTIFIED CROWD: (Speaking Spanish).
CABELLO: (Speaking Spanish).
UNIDENTIFIED CROWD: (Speaking Spanish).
JOHN OTIS, BYLINE: That's Venezuela's interior minister, Diosdado Cabello, leading thousands of civilians in an oath of allegiance. They're pledging to help defend Venezuela from a possible U.S. invasion.
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CABELLO: (Speaking Spanish).
UNIDENTIFIED CROWD: (Speaking Spanish).
CABELLO: (Speaking Spanish).
UNIDENTIFIED CROWD: (Speaking Spanish).
OTIS: Along with Cabello, they shout, "the imperialists and their allies should know that we are going to triumph." Officially, the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean is to stop drug traffickers coming out of Venezuela, but many see it as an effort to depose Maduro. However, Maduro, who was first sworn in as president in 2013, has weathered numerous crises. He survived U.S. sanctions and Venezuela's worst economic meltdown in history. His troops have crushed waves of anti-government protests. He has stonewalled negotiators trying to ease him out of power and engaged in massive fraud to steal elections. Maduro even managed to escape this drone attack when he was giving a speech in Caracas in 2018.
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PRESIDENT NICOLAS MADURO: (Speaking Spanish).
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UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: (Speaking Spanish).
OTIS: For years, U.S. officials have encouraged Venezuelan military officers to depose Maduro and collect the multimillion-dollar bounty placed on his head by the State Department, but it hasn't worked.
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JUAN GUAIDO: (Speaking Spanish).
OTIS: In 2019, troops loyal to Maduro easily put down a civic military uprising led by then-opposition leader Juan Guaido. Indeed, Maduro has worked hard to coup-proof his armed forces.
PHIL GUNSON: The way they did it was to break up the military into regional units.
OTIS: That's Phil Gunson, who's based in Caracas for the International Crisis Group.
GUNSON: It's very difficult for them to communicate safely with one another, and officers are rotated from one place to another. So it's - in order to make sure that no group of dissidents can stay together long enough to ferment some kind of coup.
OTIS: What's more, many high-ranking officers, like President Maduro, stand accused of drug trafficking and human rights violations.
GUNSON: If they were to throw out Maduro, there's no guarantee for them that they would not be in the same kind of trouble that he would be in.
OTIS: Some members of the Venezuelan opposition say they've run out of homegrown options and are now pushing for U.S. military forces to oust Maduro.
ZAIR MUNDARAY: (Speaking Spanish).
OTIS: "There is no other way," says Zair Mundaray, a former government prosecutor now living in exile in Florida. But Trump pledged to extract the U.S. from overseas conflicts, not start new ones. As for Venezuelans, most despise Maduro and voted against him in last year's stolen presidential election.
VLADIMIR VILLEGAS: (Speaking Spanish).
OTIS: But Vladimir Villegas, a radio show host in Caracas, says disgust with Maduro does not necessarily mean support for a U.S. invasion.
VILLEGAS: (Speaking Spanish).
OTIS: "What voters expressed was their desire for a peaceful and democratic change of power," he says.
President Trump says he's willing to hold talks with Maduro. But given the ostentatious U.S. military buildup in the region, Gunson says any outcome that leaves Maduro in power would be a huge victory for his regime.
GUNSON: Unless they somehow manage to topple him, this strengthens Maduro because he's able to say, I stood up to them and they sailed away.
OTIS: For NPR News, I'm John Otis.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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